Delphi and NGT Use

• In a focused, short post, discuss one of the innovations you identified from the Delphi Wiki and note whether you would use Delphi, NGT, both methods or a different choice for exploring the alternatives.

The self-sustaining vehicle that a user can travel via the land, air, water and/or space is an innovation that would need the Delphi method, which is the “consultation begins as a query set, with the experts asked to provide feedback on a group of questions. For emerging situations, these questions concern trends or possible outcomes. The organizer collates the results and then uses them to generate a second query round, which is submitted and processed” (Alexander, 2009). These experts would provide input and direction in the design and creation of the vehicle.

“The nominal group technique (NGT) is an evaluation method that provides semi-quantitative, rankordered feedback about a group of learners’ perceptions of the good and bad aspects of an educational program “ (Dobbie, Rhodes, Tysinger, & Freeman, 2004). This technique would not be useful for exploring the creation of the self-sustaining multi-terrain vehicle.

• Discuss two forces that may support it -- and two forces that may impede its success?

Political and economical forces may impede the new vehicles progress. It may be too costly to make from a materials standpoint. It may threaten the existing way of life for those currently making a living from the current vehicle creation process, and cause political pressure as a result. The environmental force which supports self-sustaining eco-friendly solutions may support this type of vehicles progress. Global diminishing of resources like oil may be a supportive force that may support the success of this type of vehicle.

• How does open or closed collaboration affect the results? Anonymity takes time, yet may reduce peer pressure or bias.

In the Delphi method “one problem is that Delphi outcomes can be driven by a desire for consensus, rather than actual agreement, meaning that divergent ideas can get quashed.13 In addition, the process can be resource-intensive, especially in terms of time”(Alexander, 2009). Anonymity could be introduced by using virtual anonymous collaboration techniques, such as online polling or online surveying.

• Include a reference and link to supporting content in your post.

Alexander, B. (2009). Apprehending the future: Emerging technologies, from science fiction to campus reality. Retrieved January 25, 2011, from http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume44/ApprehendingtheFutureEmergingT/171774

Dobbie, A., Rhodes, M., Tysinger, J. W., & Freeman, J. (2004). Using a modified nominal group technique as a curriculum evaluation tool. Family Medicine, 36(6), 402-406. Retrieved January 25, 2011, from http://www.stfm.org/fmhub/fm2004/June/Alison402.pdf